Weather It Is (Small Scale)

Good Morning:

The temperatures in Israel remain on the chilly side, and are actually colder than those in many cities of the eastern US.   In that part of the world, a ridge of warm temperatures maintains a more southwesterly flow of warm air that had led to almost "balmy" temperatures.  Flowers are blooming and dogs are shedding out of season -- not to mention other animals that don't know whether to burrow  away or continue feasting on the usual availability of nuts, etc.

Here, we're under the influence of a weak trough of low pressure.  This means that, periodically, areas of low pressure moving through the southern Jet Stream bring localised rain.  Occasionally, these weak storms tap some of the winter time cold over eastern Europe.   Actually, the next localised rain event is expected on Thursday and will be focused on the area between Ashkelon and Tel-Aviv, where around 10 mm of rain is expected. Lighter rain is expected to eventually reach the area of the center mountains.

Last year, there was a strong ridge of high pressure over western Europe.  The result was a periodic phasing of the northern and southern Jet Streams, and strong, unusually cold (and even snowy) storms.
This year, there is a very strong northern Jet that traverses a large area from the eastern Atlantic ocean all the way across Europe into Siberia.  This means that the really cold air remains "trapped" far to our north.  If not for the fact that the area of warmth (desert low) usually located over Saudia Arabia is shifted far to our east, we too would be more on the balmy side of temperatures.  So, ironically, in a season of missed opportunities and unprecedented warmth, we're in the midst of a persistently cold winter.

Still, there is a 15 chance that the end of the year will end on the very rainy side.

Barry Lynn