Weather It Is (Dangerous Storm Arrives)

Good Evening:

The storm is upon us and very heavy rain in on our door step.

In the next several hours there is a high probability of more than 10 mm per 3 hours in a broad area from the coastal plain to the central (and northern mountains).  There will be locally heavier rain, and thunder and lightning.

Total rain amounts will be between 50 to 100 mm in the lowlands, central mountains, and mountains of the north, with 25 to 50 mm in the immediate vicinity of the Kinneret.

Winds will become dangerously strong  (gale force) tonight in the heavy rain, and strong winds with higher gusts will persist tomorrow.

As temperatures cool tonight, and strong storms develop, expect rain mixed with ice pellets.  A coating of snow is possible in the higher elevations tomorrow afternoon, especially in Gush Etzion, Sefad, and other high elevations, with more significant snow amounts in the Golan.

Shabbat is shaping up as a big question mark.  An reinforcing push of cold air will arrive at upper levels.  It may arrive before the colder air at lower levels erodes away -- and hence there is another chance of snow, with rain elsewhere.

With all this cold air coming in, I would be tempted to predict more snow than the models suggest. But the models are predicting that temperatures will be above freezing except in the very highest elevations.  Model forecasts can be wrong, but it would be a surprise if snow accumulates in the central areas more than predicted.

Heavy dust in the south.

Barry Lynn