End of the Week Storm

 Good morning:

A very interesting weather scenario is shaping up for the end of the week, Shabbat.  

As pointed out by one of our Israel Winter Weather Group members, Jonathan Hoffman, there is disagreement between the European and American forecasts models, similar to the disagreement prior to our last snowstorm in February 2021.  The European model keeps Siberian cold well to our north and east.  The American model brings the Siberian trough quite far south, in order to interact with a low pressure over the southern Mediterranean.   A more southerly incursion brings a higher probability of snow to our region.

Interestingly, only a few of the GEFS members agree with the Euro, while the rest are some combination of a trough that either heads too far west of us before moving eastward, or moves directly south over our area, bringing snow. 

Last year, the snow "solution" won out.  The next couple of days should clarify our most likely scenario.

Barry Lynn