Winter Storm Update

The probabilities for an end of the week storm are trending towards 50%, based on the GEFS.  

There is still a lot of potential variability, and it comes down to just how close a cutoff low of Siberian origin (or low extension) makes it this far southward. 

Right now, the GEFS favors a very close track of the storm to the coast of the Mediterranean, rather than a more westerly track discussed yesterday.  The EURO ensembles, which have shown the storm staying to our east, are pushing the trough further to the west than before, but have lower snow chances than the GEFS (about 25%).

Barry