Weather It Is (Extreme Cold, Snow?)

 Good morning:

Temperatures on Thursday are forecast to be 2 to 3 degrees Celsius lower than their lows Monday morning.  This means lows around -2 to -4 C in higher locations, or in normally cooler locations in the mountains of Jerusalem and northern mountains.  Coastal areas should be comparatively colder as well, with near freezing temperatures in inland areas.

Currently, the global forecast models GFS and EURO disagree on the type of weather to expect Wednesday.  Both forecast heavy rain as the storm approaches Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Yet, they differ on the extent of the precipitation and how fast the cold enters our area on Wednesday.  Based on the Euro, there is a likelihood of snow in the central mountains Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening, followed by the freeze of Thursday, which should last into Friday.  The GFS predicts less precipitation than the EURO, leaving us just extremely cold.  Tomorrow's forecast  from both models should hopefully indicate better agreement. Incidentally, the EURO was more accurate for our previous storm in terms of the location of the 500 mb trough. It was predicting a more easterly position for the 500 mb trough than the GFS, while now it predicts a more westerly position.

Next week, there is a signal in the global ensembles for a more prolonged storm, possibly snow.

Barry Lynn