Weather It Is (Winter Weather/Storm Warning)

An early good morning:

We're on track for a major winter storm to impact our area during the next few days.

Snow becomes possible in the mountain areas when the near-surface temperatures (850 mb), lower- levels (700 mb), and mid-levels (500 mb) are colder than -1 C, -10 C, and -25 C, respectively. Temperatures in the mountains will fall rapidly Wednesday night.  Temperatures will become "critical" for a change over to snow as morning approaches.  These critical temperatures will be reached around 8 in morning on Thursday.

We expect wet snow to accumulate by sometime around noon on Thursday as temperatures at the previously mentioned atmospheric levels continue to drop.  The snow should  then transition to a dry snow Thursday night as temperatures at 700 mb reach close to -12 C, and at 500 mb to about -30 C.  Temperatures will be as low as -13 C and -32 C at 700 mb, and 500 mb, respectively by mid-day Friday, very conducive to a dry, accumulating snow.

The latest (18 GMT) GFS forecast is indicating heavy precipitation in the central mounts Thursday night into Friday, but our on-line forecast shows a break at night. Considering that there is a strong consensus from the 18 GMT ensemble that the storm's lowest temperatures will occur at all levels Thursday night into Friday morning, we lean towards the snow continuing into Friday (and this may be reflected in the next weekly forecast update to appear on the site).

There is about an 80% chance that temperatures will remain cool enough for more snow, which will continue until late Shabbat day, and we are expecting additional high precipitation amounts late Friday into late Saturday (Shabbat).

This is a very dangerous storm, with high winds, and heavy rain at lower levels, and snow at higher elevations.  Don't plan to travel in areas of snow, and be careful of wet roads, and blown objects or falling trees at lower elevations.

The following week may see another storm, but there is no consensus yet.

Barry Lynn