Weather It Is (A Winter Blast)

Good Evening:

The latest update (18 UTC 9 December 2013) strongly indicates that the cold air will come in sooner than in previous forecasts, and last longer than previous forecasts.  Basically the smaller probabilities that the cold air would arrive by early Thursday morning have become large probabilities.  The relatively small probability that the first storm would be followed by another storm on Shabbat has become a large probability.

The coldest air is certainly (and still) suppose to arrive towards Thursday evening, and this should transition the snow to a dry, accumulating snow.  Yet, rain may change over to wet snow early Thursday morning and accumulate during the day.  The snow should accumulate quite substantially Thursday night, into Friday.  There may transition into light snow of flurries late Friday, only to return more heavily on Shabbat.

This is a major and dangerous winter storm that should be proceeded on Wednesday by heavy rain and strong winds, with thunderstorms, and possibly hail.  Snow levels should lower (at least by nightfall) into the Jerusalem area and accumulate their as well.  The greatest snow amounts will likely be in Gush Etzion and the Galilee hills, not to mention the Golan.

After this storms, we are seeing an indication of another cold winter storm the following week; we're looking at a 20% chance now that another winter storm will follow next week as well.

I realise that we're only at late Monday, but the ensemble is indicating very high probabilities that winter will make one of its earliest snowy entrances in years.

Barry Lynn