Weather It Is (Will Sleigh Bells Ring?)

Good Evening.

The weather has certainly been strange; in fact, we've had one of the driest winters on record
(http://www.timesofisrael.com/so-far-israel-experiencing-driest-winter-in-70-years/).  Yet, winter will soon enter stage left, and enter with a vengeance.

Despite the warmth, my daughter asked me the other day if it could snow during Chanukah.  Some kids ask their fathers why is the sky blue (not at night) or if the world is really round (not when you go to the beach), but I get asked: "will it snow?"

We know with high confidence that it will get very cold and we know that the drought should end.  What we don't know is if the drought will end with an exclamation point, or if it will snow.

As of the 6 GMT forecast (1/12/2013), we can see that there is a 25% chance of a real snow -- even this early in the season. The problem is that we all have high hopes, but when push comes to shove, the probabilities are what they are, and they are going to have to change.  For instance, in the next few days, we might go from a 25% chance of snow to near 100% chance, or we may go to a zero percent chance. The interesting thing is that the snow chances and extreme cold have been pretty constant for the last few days, so what ever signal the GFS ensemble is picking up is pretty consistent from run to run and a pretty significant one.

Who knows what will be tomorrow morning -- you can look on our site under GEFS forecast. Check out the 850 mb temperatures and see if they are below freezing, at least by a couple of degrees.

Happy Chanukah,

Barry Lynn