Dust spinning around low pressure located to our southwest is continuing to cause very poor visibility as well as very poor air quality. The system will shift eastward tomorrow and dust levels will lower Thursday afternoon.
At the same time cold air filtering in at 850 and 700 mb will cause thunderstorms to develop and move in off the sea. The highest probability of rain is the vicinity of Tel-Aviv and then eastward to Jerusalem and southward to Beer-Sheva, including the Dead Sea area.
There is a very high probability of rain with a greater than 70% chance of more than 10 mm in three hours from late morning until mid-afternoon. There is a 60% chance of greater than 25 mm in three hours.
The rain should continue into late tomorrow afternoon over the Jerusalem area, and then heavy rain is again possible Friday afternoon as more cold air arrives.
The heavy rain will probably lead to flooding in city streets and streams/rivers in the Dead Sea Valley.
We're still looking at stronger winter storm early/mid-next week.