The Global Forecast Systems model (GFS) and the Global Forecast Ensemble Systems model (GEFS) continue to point towards a very convective rain event.
Currently, our WRF High Resolution Ensemble (WheHRE) continues to point to three rain events of interest today. The first is down near Eilat this afternoon, where there is a high certainty of rain, with a low probability of greater than 10 mm in 3 hours. The second is in the Jerusalem area, where there is a low probability of rain this afternoon. However, the maximum possible rain amount (20%) is just greater than 10 mm in three hours.
As the weather system transitions from a Red Sea Trough later this afternoon into a strong fall-like weather system off our sea-coast, low pressure will deepen and rain will develop. Rain amounts are forecast to be quite heavy, with a very high probability of greater than 10 mm per three hours in the area of Ashkehlon/Ashdod and Tel-Aviv South (about 70%), with even higher probabilities of heavy rain in Ashkelon as the night progresses. There are equal chances (about 60%) of greater than 25 mm of rain in three hours late tonight in both southern Tel-Aviv and Ashkelon (about 60%), but the focus is on the Ashkelon area.
As we progress towards morning, the area of heaviest rain will progress eastward to between Efrat and Beer-Sheva, with a good possibility of flooding of streams and rivers developing in this area as well as from Jerusalem southward in the Dead Sea Basin.
More rain is forecast for tomorrow, and the next potential for rain is late next week.