Weather It Is (Uncertainty)

Good Evening:

We're very certain that a "Red-Sea Trough" will affect our weather through tomorrow.  It will bring dust and tropical showers.  It will then transition into low pressure centered to our west Monday night and this center of low pressure will deepen as very cold air moves in aloft at 700 and 500 mb.

Right now, our highest resolution forecasts models keep most of the rain tomorrow over the south and in Jordan.  However, the GFS precipitation (which is based on a cumulus parameterisation) forecast raises the possibility of rain even tonight and tomorrow in the eastern-center of the country, including Jerusalem.  This is also shown by our 12 km WRF.  Amounts are possibly 5 to 10 mm per six hours, and possibly 10 to 15 mm per 6 hours tomorrow afternoon. Our ensemble maximum forecast maps shows 5 to 10 mm south of the Dead Sea Basin and about 5 mm in the Jerusalem area.

As low pressure deepens and cold air moves in aloft Monday night into Tuesday our high resolution model is showing very heavy rain along the coast, and with the unusually cold temperatures this rain could be extremely heavy.  The high resolution models show the rain staying mostly along the coast, but the GFS (again) shows rain moving inland on Tuesday.

So, the situation remains uncertain, but we need to keep in mind that we're going to be affected by a very strong late fall weather system.

Looking further in ahead: the rest of the week stays cool with a chance of showers, before a brief warming before next weeks disturbance heads our way.

Barry Lynn