The latest 1.3 km and 4 km ensemble forecasts show that rain should develop along the coast today south of Tel-Aviv. It then should move northward towards Tel-Aviv around noon-time, and then east of it, and then towards Jerusalem soon thereafter.
The 4 km ensemble shows the potential for 25 - 50 mm of rain in the storms right along the coast, with 25 mm per three hours more likely (60% chance) just east of the city. The heaviest rain in the central mountains should fall in the area of Jerusalem again around mid-afternoon. There is a 20% chance of rain amounts > 10 mm. The rain may slacken in the late afternoon and another 5 to 10 mm may fall in the evening time.
Shabbat Shalom,
Barry Lynn
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