Thursday, February 18, 2016

Weather It Is (For What The Bell Tolls)

Good Afternoon:

The bell is tolling on our nice bout of warm and sunny weather.

In fact, the global ensemble forecast is suggesting that the next rainy system may be more than a puddle maker.

There's been a shift in the forecast, which indicates that the next weather event will be more prolonged and more intense than previously indicated.

Instead of low pressure weakly developing over our area on Monday and quickly moving east (in the old country we use to say: "out to sea."), there is the potential for more significant rain Monday into Tuesday with snow on the Hermon.

Temperatures will stay on the mild side until tonight, but then the first of two fronts will arrive.

The front should bring a layer of Sinai dust on Friday and showers on Shabbat, as well as much cooler temperatures.

There will be a quick warm up  Saturday afternoon and Sunday ahead of Monday's storm, but then temperatures will fall precipitously and stay on the cool side until late next week.

The storm is still a few days away, and there is still a lot of uncertainty about the strength of the upper level low that will be responsible for maintaining and intensifying the precipitation amounts (in the presence of plenty of low level moisture).

However, there is the potential for flooding in river beds and streams in the Jordan and Dead Sea Valleys, as well as strong winds on Monday into Tuesday.

The dust will vacate with the rain on Friday evening north to south.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn

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