Monday, February 22, 2016

Weather It Is (Storm Update)

Good Morning:

Below there are two examples of precipitation streamers affecting the area of Beer-Sheva.

The 4 km ensemble shows that the highest probability of streamers is from late night (that just passed) until early afternoon.

There is some discrepancy between the 18 GMT and 12 GMT updates from last night.  The former shows the heaviest rain (50 to 100 mm) from Jerusalem south to Hebron, while the former shows that the heaviest rain ( > 100 mm) in the area of Beer-Sheva.  The latest updates shows 25 to 50 mm by Tuesday morning in this area (but heavier amounts on the mountains east of route 90). In the area of the Kinneret, expect 10 to 25 mm total storm amounts.

All forecasts continue to show rain today from Netanya southward into the southern Arava.  Another band of rain should affect the northern areas (especially along the coast) late this afternoon. The heaviest rain should be focused on southern areas tonight.

Regarding the potential for "catastrophic" flooding.  As noted, we don't run a hydrological stream model, so we can only note the possibility based on historical analogy.

The next couple of weeks show some ups and downs in temperatures, with a possibility of storms late week or early next week and then sometime late next week.

Barry Lynn

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