Weather It Is (A Storm Winds Down)

Good Afternoon:

After receiving a number of complaints, I must say that "if" I offended any sticklers to the calendar, I must apologise.

It turns out that I really raised some hackles when I said that it had snowed only three (or so times) in March since the 1880s.

Well, I have a list on my desk that counts 15 times just since 1920, and this is leaving out the time it snowed in Gush Etzion (15/03/07) one morning several centimetres.

For all we know, there could be further days missing from the official list.  On the other hand, 15/100 times 100% means that  about 15% of the time it does snow in March.

We're nearing the end of February, and temperatures will be warming up as a weak ridge of high pressure develops on the heels of our last heavy rain storm.

The warm weather should last into Erev Shabbat when a weak frontal system will bring back a touch of winter.  There is a 25% chance that the touch will bring a nip in the air and some showers on Shabbat into Sunday.

Looking further into the beginning of March: we see a few days of mild weather before the middle of next week ends with a winter chill.  Regarding possible rain amounts with the return of winter-like temperatures, the forecasts are not clear about this yet, as the forecast strength of the 500 mb trough  remains comparatively weak within the set of global ensemble members.

Barry Lynn