Sunday, February 7, 2016

Weather It Is (Our Winter of Discontent)

Good Morning:

There's something to be said for an old-fashioned rain storm.  Temperatures at higher atmospheric  levels in the central and northern mountains are cold enough for some wet-snow to mix in with the rain, but surface temperatures are still above freezing, so rain is the story.

I never thought that I would enjoy rain, but I do now.

As my son said last night: "why doesn't the radar look like that when it snows?"  Most of the time it does, but last time it didn't.

A second upper level surge of cold air will help maintain rain across much of the country until the evening, and then rain showers (with the exception of the Hermon) will gradually end tonight (or tomorrow morning).

However, a very strong upper level vorticity max (at 500 mb) will approach on Wednesday. Right now, it has only limited lower level moisture support -- so we may be back to rain or wet-snow showers, although a heavier downpour can't be ruled out.

At the moment, it's unclear just how well the system will organise itself into a lower level trough, so we have to leave this open for now.

Looking further ahead.  It will stay will a winter chill until the end of the week.

While it should slowly warm up, thereafter, we do see some potential for another storm to follow.
Yet, no snow is in the forecast in the next two weeks (unless we get lucky this Wednesday), and so we may leave this winter as a winter of -- perhaps -- our discontent (for more than one reason).

Barry Lynn

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