Friday, March 4, 2016

Weather It Is (10 Days)

Good Afternoon:

The window opens, the window closes.  It seems like a never ending battle between those who think spring has sprung, and those who think who think not.

Those who think yes will surely be in the ascendance during the next 10 days (even with Sunday's chill).  They will breeze through the week on warm southerly breezes, basking in the beautiful March sunshine.

However, like a wave crashing on shore, a ridge will shoot up over western Europe, which will help drive a trough down over the eastern Mediterranean.  In a rare confluence of signals, we can see out 10 days into the future, and watch this wave of cold winter air cast spring dreams away.  There is an 85% chance of winter's return, and a similar chance of significant rain.

The ensemble suggests that the near zero degree temperatures should persist for several days.  In fact, one doesn't see a return to warm weather before the end of the 16 day period shown in the forecasts.

As for storm intensity, there is still a lot of variation shown at 500 mb.  As for snow, most likely on the Hermon.

Until then, those who say spring has sprung will have won.

Barry Lynn

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