Weather It Is (Warm then Cold)

Good Afternoon:

We're in for some changes in the weather.

Temperatures should warm substantially into Sunday as warm air is drawn northward ahead of an approaching low pressure area.   As the low pressure air moves in from the west, it will draw some tropical moisture northward, leading to the possibility of some tropical showers (laced with dust).

From Sunday night onwards, the weather will turn increasingly chilly, if not cold, and stay this way into the following week.  Showers are possible, and then rain is likely from mid-week onwards.

In our last blog, we spoke about a possible strong coupling between the northern and southern branches, possibly leading to an extended chill, with temperatures near freezing. 

The latest GFS forecast has the ridge a bit further east, and more closed off, which will likely bottle up some of that cold air to our north.  Even so, enough cold air should drain southward to spin up a strong area of low pressure, with a significant fetch across the Medterranean sea.  This means plenty of moisture for an extended period of rain and showers.

The GFS ensemble still shows a few members with even colder air than predicted with the deterministic GFS   model..  However, the chance of a late winter snow is probably close to zero.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn