Weather It Is (Dangerous Wind and Cold)

Good Afternoon:

Highlight: High wind warning for Dead Sea Basin this (Tuesday Evening).  Winds 50 km/h with gusts to about 70 km/h. Strong winds tomorrow (30 km/h with higher gusts)..
Highlight: High wind warning for coastal and inland mountains tomorrow (Thursday afternoon and evening).
Highlight: Cold on the mountains of the Galilee and Hermon Thursday night.
Highlight: Wet snow accumulation (1 to 10 cm) on the highest hills of the Galilee and Hermon (Bet-Jann, Har-Kenaan, Neve Ativ, Hermon mountain).
Highlight: Flood Potential: In the area of Lake Kinneret tonight into Thursday night.
Highlight: High and dangerous waves at the coastal beaches, as well in the Kinneret.
Highlight: Elevated Risk of Fire Spread Thursday because of winds.
Highlight: Lightning Risk in "Lake Effect" rain showers, especially Thursday afternoon and night (along the coast).

There is no doubt in the forecast: cold and wind are on the way.  However, most of the precipitation associated with this storm will be confined to the northern areas, with rain amounts increasing from Netanya northward (up to 30 mm).  It will arrive in the north tonight, where there will be periods of rain. There will be light rain along the coast.  Rain will intensify tomorrow afternoon in the north and then fall more heavily along the coast from very late afternoon until Friday morning.

The inclement weather is associated with a winter time trough in the eastern Mediterranean.  However, the temperatures at 500 mb will fall to only -20 C, which will reduce the potential for heavier rain/thunder/lightning.  However, because of the very cold temperatures at 850 mb (close to 0 C), there is the potential for a heavier shower to develop over the sea and produce brief periods of heavy rain showers with possible lightning.  This is most likely from Thursday afternoon into Friday morning.

The weather pattern over Europe will retrograde westward from Shabbat onwards.  This will allow the possibility for a Sharav low earlier next week to be generally followed by warm, springtime weather from mid-week onwards.

Barry Lynn