Weather It Is (Is There An Explanation for This Insanity?)

Good Evening:

Perhaps there is an explanation for our "crazy" weather:

http://earth.huji.ac.il/data/file/danny/144_Givati_AR13_Israel_rain_trends%20(1).pdf

Nevertheless, we are nearing the end of April and there is still a chance of snow.  Of course, it will probably not accumulate snow in the higher elevations of the center, but snowflakes may again be observed.  More likely, it will snow on the Hermon and then the question becomes whether the next round of winter weather will be accompanied by another period of severe thunderstorms.  At the moment, there is a 10 to 15% chance of heavier convective storms (as indicated by colder 500 mb temperatures).

In our previous severe storm environment, temperatures at 850 mb were about + 5 C and not that much cooler at 700 mb.  They were however, close to - 25 C at 500 mb, meaning that the atmosphere was quite unstable (as measured by a change in temperature with height). In the upcoming storm, temperatures will likely be cooler in the lower atmosphere, meaning that the clouds will be less convectively unstable.

Here's what we expect. Temperatures should warm up through Tuesday, but fall off precipitiously after midnight Tuesday and be quite chilly by Wednesday Evening.  Temperatures will then continue downwards even more and remain at chilly/cold levels into Shabbat morning. The best chance for rain will be Thursday night into Friday, but as we get closer we'll be able to confirm this with greater certainty. For instance, there may be some showers as the front comes in Wednesday.

The winter weather will come with periods of strong winds.

Warming temperatures and a possible Sharav are possible early next week.

Barry Lynn