Weather It Is (Winter's Last Blast)

Good Evening:

An unseasonably cold winter storm is upon us.  It will bring 25-50 mm of rain generally to locations from the coastal plain inland to the central and northern mountains from tonight into tomorrow evening.  About 20 cm of snow will fall on the Hermon.

Temperatures at 850 mb will fall off tonight to about 1 C by the morning and remain there until about Monday morning.  Meanwhile, temperatures at 700 mb will fall to almost -10 C, and -27 C at 500 mb by morning.  While temperatures are cold enough in the upper atmosphere for snow at the higher elevations of the center and Galilee, they are barely cold enough for snow at the lower levels.  Moreover, the surface temperatures, perhaps owing to warm sea surface temperatures, are not predicted to fall below 3 or 4 C in these areas.

Hence, while we expect thunderstorms along the coast tonight and tomorrow, and thunderstorms inland over the mountains, the best we can "hope" for is for rain mixed with hail (graupel) and snow at times, especially early morning (before surface temperatures warm up again with the rising sun).  Our models do indeed suggest that rain will mix with graupel and snow in Gush Etzion and the Galilee, while there could be ice pellets in Jerusalem.  We wouldn't be "against" a heavier snow shower, but it would have to come in an extremely intense thunderstorm.   Nevertheless, temperatures should be too warm for any lasting accumulation in these areas.

It's a winter storm in spring time, but only the highest elevations in the Golan (e.g., Neve Ativ) and the Hermon should note the unusual occurrence of an accumulating snow.

Rain tonight and tomorrow may bring flooding to the area between Beer-Sheva and Mitzpe Rimon, as well as the Dead Sea.

Chilly weather will remain with us through mid-week when another weak storm may bring more rain.


Barry Lynn