Weather It Is (People Are Still Asking)

Good Afternoon:

People are still asking about the weather for Israeli Independence Day (Thursday).  The same may be said for Israeli Remembrance Day (Wednesday).

The latest forecast shows that warm temperatures will peak on Monday, and then we will be on a descent into Friday morning.

Regarding rain chances: it is still unclear how much rain there will be with this system, but there will be a chance of showers from Tuesday into Friday.  There is a 20% chance of rain on Wednesday, a 30% chance of rain on Thursday and a 40% chance on Friday.

Regarding rain intensity: this storm may be colder than wet, but until we get within range of higher resolution forecasts we will not be able to speculate further.  The reason the storm may be "colder than wet" is because there is only a 10% chance that temperatures at 500 mb will fall to about -25 C (which usually indicates the potential for strong convection). On the other hand, the sea is relatively warm so cold 850 mb temperatures (near zero) may create "lake-effect" rain showers or even thundershowers (similar to the heavy snow showers we had on a Friday evening in January as 850 and 700 mb temperatures were comparatively cold, even when 500 mb temperatures were not).

Strong or even gale force winds could create dangerous conditions in locations with temporary lightning, etc.

Barry Lynn