Good Afternoon:
Our weather site doesn't show particularly bad weather for evening of Independence Day, nor Independence Day itself.
One has to keep in mind, though, that the blog discussion is based on an ensemble of global model forecasts while our site shows the forecast from a single realisation of the weather (the "GFS" forecast) downscaled to a higher resolution appropriate for our country.
What the latest forecast shows is that the winter cold should start to settle in on Wednesday and reach its minimum cold sometime on Independence Day or Thursday night. Along will the cold will come either strong or even gale force winds. At the same time, there are indications that the upper level trough will be more severe than previously indicating, raising the possibility of severe thunderstorms again during this period (more likely late Thursday into Friday morning.
Shabbat Shalom,
Barry Lynn
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