Our lightning detection networks shows a strong area of convection located between Cyprus and Crete. Thunderstorms will develop ahead of and with an approaching storm system -- characterized
by high upper level vorticity (divergence aloft).
Weather Warning: Thunderstorms with a chance of flooding rains, strong winds, and dust -- this afternoon into this evening.
- Our high resolution forecasts do not show much rain with this system, but the GFS does show showers. The GFS includes a parameterization for unresolved convective storms, so the fact that the GFS shows rain just supports the fact that the approaching system will create instability in the atmosphere. Forecasting the occurrence of thunderstorms a few hours in advance requires the use of our lightning network as input data into our high resolution model (this forecast will be run soon).
- The greatest chance of rain is this afternoon into this evening, while there will be a chance of showers on Shabbat.
- It will also be very windy, and dusty, and our relatively warm temperatures will turn chilly by this afternoon.
- Ahead of the next system right on the heels of this one, Sunday will be a tad warmer, but there will be lots of dust and winds again strong enough to blow off any Purim hats.
- Monday (Purim Shushan) should be rainy, very windy, and showers may continue into Tuesday.
- The days thereafter should stay cool until the end of the week. At that time, there is a 70% chance it will turn dry and warm, and a 30% chance it will turn chilly with rain.
Shabbat Shalom, Purim Samaech,