Weather It Is (Looming Storms)

Good Afternoon:

"But sometimes the forecast really is, maybe it will snow, but maybe it will just rain. And then we wake up to sand all over our cars. And then I remember, sand is also precipitation."

That about sums up how I felt last week.  It did snow Sunday night, but all we had to show for it was sand the next morning.   Ironically, the dry air associated with the dust/sand enabled the surface cooling that brought the snow to Gush Etzion.  This was followed by a storm that was full of snow, but not where it mattered (where we live at the surface, unless you were on the Golan). 

So, when we can finally say that there is something to be excited about, where the forecast should (or is that will) be how much snpw accumulates (in Jerusalem)  rather than if, then we might begin to feel that the prelude was worth it.

Many times in the past, our snowstorms have arrived via the Siberian Express, dropping Siberian cold almost directly into the far eastern Mediterranean.  However, Wednesday's storm should follow on the heels of our next storm arriving on Sunday with heavy rain and wind (and snow on the Hermon).  It should shoot in on a southeasterly vector from an unusual location (think Sweden and Finland) passing just west of Cyprus and make a bee-line towards our area.  The extremely cold air should pick up plenty of moisture, but because it will be unusually cold it should also bring snow.  It will also be fast moving so the extreme cold associated with it will last just a couple of days (into Friday), but the trajectory over the sea should maximize precipitation potential.

Regarding the cold, the probability is about 75%, while the likelihood of an accumulating snow is at 60%.

Stay tuned!

Barry Lynn