Weather It Is (Winter Weather Warning)

Good Evening:

Highlights: Winter Storm Warning for Har Hermon Sunday and Sunday Night (into Monday), for 50 to 100 cm of snow. Winter Storm Warning for the Golan for Sunday Night, for up to 20 cm of snow.

Winter Weather Warning for the area of Safed and Jerusalem (north and southern hills).  Sunday evening and night, mixed rain, snow, and ice is expected with a coating of ice possible during heavier precipitation periods (but the ice should melt in above freezing temperatures). A light snow accumulation is also possible on mountains north of Jerusalem.

Heavy Rain is expected along the coastal areas, with 25 to 50 mm, and 50 to 75 mm in the far north (outside of the Hermon and Golan).

Strong and gale force winds expected during Sunday and Sunday night in many locations.

Possibility of snow in higher elevations of the central mountains Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Discussion: Very cold air is poised to move in at upper levels (500 mb) Sunday evening.  This will trigger heavy precipitation, and would normally would bring snow to Jerusalem.  However, the middle levels of the atmosphere are only marginally cold enough for snow, and temperatures near the surface should be 2 to 3 Celcius.  This mean that there can be some ice in heavier precipitation, and rain mixed with snow (most likely between late evening hours until midnight), but a snow accumulation is (currently) very unlikely in Jerusalem.

However, the forecasts are showing colder air at lower and middle levels arriving Tuesday night, along with heavier precipitation.  There is also an indication of additional phasing at upper levels. If everything comes "together," there could be a wet snow in Jerusalem Tuesday night into early morning.

We plan further updates as the storm(s) progress.

Barry Lynn