Weather It Is (Stormy, Windy, and Snowy)

Good Evening:

The coldest weather of the year -- if not the decade -- is on the way.

But, first, a storm will approach from the west and bring us strong winds and rain from Sunday evening into Tuesday, with the highest amounts of rain falling along the coastal areas and mountains of the north (with snow on the Hermon).

All ensemble models agree that the coldest weather in years will then arrive Wednesday afternoon along with gale force winds, and rain changing to snow and lasting into Thursday.  The storm will be taking an unusual path southeastward from the Scandinavian region, rather than a more southerly track from western Siberia.  This will allow the storm to pick up plenty of moisture on the way. Our high resolution forecast shows that temperatures should be at zero or below over most of the central mountain areas.   The temperatures at 850 mb should be close to -5 Celsius, and -15 Celsius at 700 mb.  These values are much colder than any storms in the last decade, which will insure a dry, accumulating snow.

There is a greater than 90% chance that the second storm (the snowstorm) should arrive on Wednesday.  What is unclear is just how far southward the upper level trough will approach. The further south, the greater the snow rates should be and the lower the snow elevation levels.  Right now, several centimeters are predicted in Jerusalem, while greater than 10 cm in Gush Etzion.  But, these are probably conservative values.

In other words, the details need to be "ironed out," but it already seems like someone already left the freezer door open.

Barry Lynn