Weather It Is (A Storm Arrives)

Good Afternoon:

My daughter had one simple observation: it's too warm to snow.  My wife called downstairs -- she thought it was suppose to snow today, Tuesday.

If my immediate family is confused, then I can well imagine the confusion among readers of this blog.

Moreover, this blog maybe over taken some news related to colder temperatures recently forecast.

Here's the summary:

1) Gale Warning for coastal and mountain areas.

2) Flood Risk in mountain/valley and northern areas.

3) Winter Storm Warning for the Golan Wednesday and Wednesday Night.

4) Winter Storm Warning for Gush Etzion for late Wednesday and Night, for 5 to 10 cm of snow.

5) Winter Storm Watch for Jerusalem.

I received an interesting explanation for why the lower atmosphere is not as cold as originally forecast.  Simply put, the position of high and low pressure systems over Europe are somewhat displaced from their previous forecast position, shunting off to the east some of our previously mentioned extreme cold.

Nevertheless, we're not out of the woods yet.  Currently, our forecast shows 5 to 10 cm of snow for Gush Etzion, with mixed snow, ice, and rain in Jerusalem.  The strongest precipitation should fall in Jerusalem in the late afternoon and evening, and in Gush Etzion in the evening hours as the coldest air arrives both aloft and in the lower atmosphere.

Snow and ice, rather than just ice and rain should arrive in the evening hours, and continue past midnight.  Forecast temperatures are a couple of degrees above freezing in Jerusalem, and a degree colder in Gush Etzion (depending on elevation).  Hence, the snow is more likely to accumulate in Gush Etzion in the very late afternoon and evening (where 5 to 10 cm is forecast) compared to Jerusalem where only a coating may occur early in the evening (but melt very quickly).

The precipitation should last until morning, and will probably turn back to rain or a very wet snow in Gush Etzion by morning.

Based on an examination of global ensemble forecasts, the range of possible error suggests that there is a 20% chance of several centimetres of snow in Jerusalem. Currently, though, our highest resolution forecast based on the GFS newest version does not show an accumulation of snow in
Jerusalem.  This could change with the next update, as the synoptic conditions are more favorable for snow in Jerusalem.

Elsewhere, a light coating of snow is forecast in the higher mountains surrounding Sefad.  The lower Golan is forecast to have 10 to 15 cm, while the upper Golan should have up to half a meter.

Barry Lynn