Weather It Is (One Storm Arrives, And Then Snow?)

Good Evening:

Right on schedule, our lightning detection network has identified a long line of thunderstorms arriving at our coast line.  The map shows a radar depiction of the storms ("PulseRad") derived from the lightning data.

The storms are occurring along a frontal zone ahead of a low pressure area moving into Turkey. Very cold temperatures aloft will mean that hail should occur with these thunderstorms, while cold temperatures near the surface mean that ice ("cubes") could coat the ground tonight into tomorrow.

It will be followed by a brief warm-up, and then by a stronger storm developing just west of Cyprus.  Just where this storm develops (just east of Cyprus is better) will determine the elevation at which snow falls on Sunday into Monday.  The further east it develops, the colder the temperatures at the surface will be (as cold air moving over the sea absorbs heat from the Mediterranean Sea).

Right now, temperatures at upper levels should be cold enough for convective precipitation, which when combined with temperatures at middle levels just cold enough for good snow growth, means that this storm will give it a good try to bring snow to Jerusalem.

The problem is that any snowflake making the plunge towards earth will encounter temperatures near the surface that will probably be above freezing (with 850 mb temperatures possibly from just above freezing to a degree or so below).  Basically, this is not a good situation to be in if you're a snowflake, and many of them may simply choose to stay aloft in the clouds, instead of taking the risk of melting on the way down.

Hence, we'll have to wait and see our high resolution forecasts in order to be able to know at what elevations snow might accumulate on the ground (if any, in our area).

Until then, we can't say if there will just be rain and mixed snow, or wet snow that might coat the highest elevations.

It might also be of interest to note that about 30% of our forecasts are predicting that the mid-week period will bring even colder weather.  This could occur as cold air wraps behind our early next week's storm and possibly moves directly south into our area, with minimal moderation from warm sea-surface temperatures.

Barry Lynn