Weather It Is (Evening Update)

Good Evening:

The forecast arrival of our severe winter storm is unchanged.

Gale force winds will become a "Severe Gale" late tomorrow evening and night, with winds exceeding 41 knots both along the central to southern coasts and inland to the central mountains (75 to 88 km/h). There is a chance that winds will exceed 48 knots, approaching 100 km/h (especially along the coastal areas and in the mountainous areas).

Our ensemble shows that the heaviest precipitation should fall in the central mountains, including Jerusalem from 17 IST until 23 IST, when temperatures in the lower, middle, and upper atmosphere should be at their coldest.  The heavy precipitation should be accompanied by frequent lightning and hail and smaller ice.

Our deterministic highest resolution WRF forecast indicates that snow should arrive in Jerusalem and Gush Etzion after 1700 IST, but accumulate only in Gush Etzion 5 to 15 cm, depending on elevation.

The atmospheric temperatures are on average cold enough for snow at lower, middle, and upper levels for the highest mountainous areas, but surface temperatures remain too warm in Jerusalem for snow accumulation.  Checking our ensemble forecast, we don't see enough variability in temperatures to consider that snow will accumulate were our coldest forecasts to verify.

Still, where there's snow in the air, there's hope that a heavy burst will whiten the ground.

Have a good night -- updates planned for tomorrow morning.

Barry Lynn