Low pressure continues to spin off our coast in the eastern Mediterranean.
Unfortunately, a shot of very cold air will be arriving at 500 mb late tonight and tomorrow. Very strong convection is now forecast to develop during this period and move in off the coast.
The heaviest rain is forecast by the model to occur in an arc from Haifa southeastward to the Jerusalem area and then back westward to Beer-Sheva. The highest probability for heavy rain is in the Jerusalem area mid-afternoon Thursday into the evening, with total rain amounts from 10 mm south to between 25 and 50 mm in the Jerusalem area (including into the Dead Sea Valley).
Right along the coast, the cities of Ashkelon, Tel-Aviv, and Netanaya may see very heavy rain as storms developing over the sea nudge their way inward to these coastal cities before redeveloping along the Galilee and central mountain spines. Amounts could be above 25 mm in a 3 hour period from late tonight into early afternoon.
We're also expecting plenty of lightning with these storms and strong wind gusts.
The rain should taper off by early Friday, but return again early next week as another wave of early season rain heads our way.