Tuesday, February 12, 2019

Weather It Is (From Yesterday)

But, nothing has much changed, except that the system appears somewhat colder than when this was written. Still, uncertainty is the only certainty.

Good Evening:

We're still waiting and watching.

One storm has now moved south of England into western Europe.  Another storm should drop down from Scandinavia and then interact with the eastward moving storm.  The resulting trough should then plunge southward west of Cyprus.

Currently, the storm is forecast to be closer to Crete than to Cyprus, but the global models still haven't really sampled the Scandinavian storm yet, so there is probably some error in the forecast in regard to where the storm plunges southward.

If the storm plunges further eastward, the chances of snow will improve.  Complicating the forecast picture is the possibility of an additional influx of cold air as the storm moves very close to us late Thursday and Thursday night.  Overall, there is a 30% chance of wet snow/rain in Jerusalem Thursday night, and wet snow in Gush Etzion.  Winds will also be strong, and flooding is possible in coastal areas and valleys as well.

Otherwise, the chilly, wintry weather should last into late next week, with a small possibility of another storm mid-next week.

Barry Lynn

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