Weather It Is (Stormy Weather Update)

Good Evening:

Highlight: Winter storm with strong winds and heavy rain arriving mid-week and lasting into Shabbat. Heavy snow is still possible in the central mountains.

Cold weather should persist until mid-next week, when there is a 40% chance another storm will arrive with additional winter chill.

Some people have told me that my last update was quite a while back (actually on Friday).  What they are really saying is: "let's hear it.  What's it going to be?"

This morning I received a note consigning "Old-Man" GFS to the dust-bin of history (the current, but soon to be past edition of the Global Forecast Systems model).  For quite a while the Old-Man has been indicating the potential for Snow Thursday into Shabbat, while the European models and the "New" GFS (the "parallel" version) have not. This person looked forward to the day when the New would replace the Old-Man, so tales of snow would be more than fairy tales.

I do too, but never discount the wisdom that comes with age. The latest forecasts shows that the European models and the New GFS have moved in the direction of the Old-Man GFS.  We can add to that list the Canadian Global Ensemble Prediction System as well.

Now that a lot more has been said than done, we're back where we were several days ago, but perhaps with greater surety that a storm is on the way.  After temperatures rocket upwards tomorrow, they will reenter our atmosphere almost as fast and winter will land upon us again. Strong winds and chill on Tuesday will be followed by rain and strong winds on Wednesday (snow on the Hermon), and there is the potential for heavy snow in the central mountains from late Thursday into Shabbat morning.

However, before you rush out to buy your snow shovels, keep in mind that it is only Sunday and the possibility of heavy snow some five days later is 30%.  But, if you do buy that shovel, you have a similar chance of using it again in early march.

On the other hand, it hardly snows here, so these words may just melt off the page in the rainy weather ahead.

Barry Lynn