Weather It Is (Quite Cold, But)

Good Afternoon:

While one might be impressed by how cold it is going to get, and how long it will stay cold (with low temperatures near zero or single digits (Celcius) for the coming week (or more), one might also begin to wonder: "what's the point?"  Where's the snow, and if no snow, why not bring on summer a tad bit early?  In fact, I have people telling me just that.

There is an elongated trough of low pressure stretching from western Siberia into the central Mediterranean. However, the northern part of this trough will shear off from the southern part, cutting off its supply of polar (very cold) air.  The southern system will then move eastward towards our area on Wednesday, arriving sometime Thursday -- but devoid of the comparatively cold temperatures required to bring snow to the Jerusalem area.

Yet, there is a second storm moving through England now that is forecast to spin around and dive into our eastward moving trough.  The combination will lower temperatures in the upper level trough to values cold enough for snow, and this combined system should arrive Thursday night into Friday morning.

However, winds ahead of it are forecast to be southwesterly.  Usually, this means that the air arriving with the cold air would be filled with dust and have relatively low humidity.  This combination limits the potential for heavy precipitation, and indeed our upcoming storm will not be the heavy precipitation maker we originally saw in our forecasts.  Yet, because this system is first transversing a large part of the mediterranean, there appears to be plenty of humidity to bring at least snow-showers to the highest elevations of Jerusalem and surrounding areas.

Currently, the forecast shows the center of the coldest air transversing northern Israel, which means that there could be a period of snow over northern mountainous areas Thursday night into Friday morning.  Any shift southward in the track of the storm would raise the probability of a period snow in Jerusalem as well.  The probability of this happening is about 30%.

In any case, heavier rain should arrive to the central mountains on Friday afternoon, and showers will continue throughout most of the next week, and the cold as well, over much of the country.

Israel is a small country, so small changes in storm tracks can affect different populated areas quite dramatically. It is also a very small country beset by much larger neighbors of whom many don't wish it well.  This is ironic because the minority Arab population has a standard of living much higher than surrounding (Arab) countries, and also partakes in the country's civic and work life as well.

Still, such is the case, and I suppose that it was to be expected that we would have our "Israeli moments" at some point.  The first was the late arrival of our son Friday night, which required a visit by the local security and then the Israel police -- all of whom helped us (quite kindly) locate our son.  The second was when I received a notice from my daughter that she was "okay," and not on the bus that crashed on the way to Modiin.

One potential tragedy that was not okay, was the murder of Ori Ansbacher, by an unrepentant Palestinian from Hebron, who "wanted to kill a Jew and be a martyr."  Strangely, he was "disowned" by local terrorist groups, who (I paraphrase) said that it wasn't honorable to sexually assault and kill a girl who went out into the woods to read.  He's actually not being offered the usual praise and congratulations for murdering a Jewish Israeli (https://www.timesofisrael.com/palestinians-quietly-renounce-ori-ansbachers-killer-after-he-admits-rape/).  Then, we read that her family was visited by Palestinians who wished to express their condolences (https://www.timesofisrael.com/palestinians-pay-condolence-visit-to-family-of-slain-teen-ori-ansbacher/).

This is all quite unexpected, but relevant to a conversation I had with a co-worker who asked me what my plan is for making peace.  My response was: "that they should stop trying to kill us."  He responded that is no plan at all, and that the Israeli army had killed more Palestinians than they us, confusing selfdefense with murder.   That can happen among the most well-intentioned people, but I truly believe that coexistence is possible, but we would need a lot more Palestinians to wonder if murder is ever justified.  That was the idea after the signing of the Oslo Accords, but Mr. Arafat had other ideas (he was simply biding his time until he could start the next war, but from close up), and his successor still "pays to slay" his citizens to murder Israelis.

One might wonder how has the State of Israel (but really the Jewish people) survived 70 plus years of Arab and Palestinian terrorism?  Of course, the Israeli Defense Forces, and the local (Shin Bet) and external (Mossad) secret services have been instrumental in protecting the state.  However, none of these defenses is foolproof.  My guess is that we've survived simply because of the power of the "Shiva" or mourning period to uplift those who have suffered the worst losses from the depths of  despair (I hope never to find out!).  I think that it does so by bringing forth memories of the departed into the present, and through the retelling of these memories this person (or even child, God forbid) lives within us, and this gives us the strength to go forward. It's given the State itself the power to survive.

Barry Lynn