Winter Storm Update

Good Evening:

For snow-lovers, the probability of snow in Jerusalem later this week remains up in the air.

Earlier today, the forecast ensembles  reverted to their previous forecast positions with a low forming closer to Crete than Cyprus. However, the latest update (12z) has intensified the low further east and southward.

Moreover, wind speeds have increased to gale force, and precipitation amounts have increased by about 30% to relatively high amounts for typical winter storms (generally, > 50 mm on average).

In any case, the resulting storm will be the interaction of a low over the eastern Atlantic, which is forecast to move southward of England, and another low moving southward from Scandinavia.  Both storms are originating in areas with relatively low atmospheric sampling -- especially the storm over the eastern Atlantic.

So, it may really be only Monday (three days before) when we know how these two storms will interact and affect our weather.  In any case, it will get winter-cold for several days,  just how much: unknown.

Barry Lynn