Weather It Is (Stormy Weather)

Good Morning:

Highlights: thunderstorms through Sunday, and chilly weather throughout next week. Late February storm possible.

The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) deserves a lot of credit.  Almost 12 days ago, or even as much as two weeks ago, the Global Forecast Ensemble Model predicted a mid-February period of stormy and cold weather for the eastern Mediterranean (and Israel), and the model forecast was correct.

Where it missed out, though, was on the small details that have a large influence on our weather.  For instance, Thursday's night storm approached from a more westerly direction than northwesterly, so that the coldest air arrived in the Jerusalem area, for example, on relatively dry southwesterly winds. Snow was "confined" to places such as Nimrod in the Golan, and the Hermon itself.

These details became apparent to us as we approached mid-week, as the forecast precipitation amounts for the Jerusalem area were lowered until after Thursday night's storm passed us by. However, another storm is arriving and  temperatures will be falling tonight at upper and lower levels and these falls should continue over the next few days. The cold temperatures should combine with plenty of moisture to produce thunderstorms and hail in the central mountains, including Jerusalem, with flooding of low-lying areas possible (including the Jordan Valley/Dead-Sea) as we move from Friday night into late Sunday (if not Monday).

Looking further ahead, we see on our forecasts a titanic struggle between a building mass of cold air over western Siberia and a ridge building over western and central Europe.  The cold air mass will be trying to plunge southward as the ridge builds to the north and east.  Because this cold air would be arriving from the cold reaches of Siberia it is less likely to be warmed by the Mediterranean sea-waters.  This means that even Jerusalem would be at risk of a major snowfall the following week if the trough of cold air is able to move southward.  As someone wrote: "it's something to be concerned about."

Stay tuned and Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn