Weather It Is (Winter Weather Update)

Good Afternoon:

Some rain and winter cold has spread over the country -- consistent with "medium" range forecasts of a couple of weeks ago.  Moreover, such winter cold has about an 80% chance of continuing into early March.

The Global Forecast Ensemble System (GEFS) predicts that even colder winter temperatures will arrive both from the direction of Siberia and from unusually cold winter weather over Greenland.  First,  a cold "trough" in the wave pattern of air should drop in around February 25th, with another shot of cold air to follow a few days later (near the end of the month).  Additional cold air may arrive from Greenland via northern Europe as storms traverse a strong "ridge" of relatively warm air over western and central Europe.

However, both the newer version of the Global Forecast Systems model (GFS) and the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) models (the deterministic and ensemble) are pointing towards real winter cold holding off until the very end of the month and early March.

We're going to have to wait a few days to see how this cold weather plays itself out in the forecast (and then reality), but winter is not going away, and it looks ready to bring us our coldest weather and highest chances for snow so far this year.

Barry Lynn