Weather It Is (Extreme Winds, Heavy Rain, Extreme Cold)

Good Evening:

Warnings: Heavy Rain, Gale Force Winds, Chill

Our high resolution forecasts and ensembles show heavy rain should sweep down from the northwest tonight, producing > 25 mm in 3 h in locations along the central coast, and between 50 to 100 mm of rain by Friday over large areas of the country (with the exception of the far south),

The GEFS (global ensemble) shows a strong storm spinning up over Cyprus tonight and moving eastward inland by Friday.  The strong low pressure area is associated with very strong upper level support (vorticity advection).  Moreover, the ensemble shows high humidity levels even up to 500 mb, especially tonight when the heaviest rain is expected.

The rain will be accompanied by chilly temperatures. In fact, temperatures are just cold enough for snow at lower levels, but upper levels (500 mb) do not support snow formation.  However, with the chill, there may be some ice.

The winds should peak tomorrow afternoon at Gale force or even strong Gale.

The chill will moderate briefly, but the global ensemble is indicating that temperatures will fall below freezing in the higher elevations on Sunday and stay there into Tuesday morning.

The ensemble shows extremely cold temperatures at 700 mb, and some forecast members indicates similarly intense temperatures at 500 mb.

At the moment, though, the humidity profile shows saturated conditions in the lower levels, but less
than saturated conditions at 700 mb.  This means that a large precipitation (snow) event is currently not likely.

The mean ensemble maps (on our web site: https:\\weather-it-is-israel.com) show a broad area of cold approaching from the northeast, as well as a diffuse vorticity field.  This may simply reflect the uncertainty in the forecast, but also that this will be mainly an extremely cold event with snow showers.

Stay tuned.

Barry Lynn