Sunday, December 11, 2016

Weather It Is (Gale Force Winds)

Good Afternoon:

Weather forecast accuracy has improved greatly since I started weather forecasting years ago, and the last few years have seen improvements still.

However, it is apparent that a lack of good information (weather data) in areas that really influence our weather (like the far northern latitudes, and perhaps the oceans) has set some sort of limit on our ability to peer over the horizon (from one week to the next).

For instance, last week we saw chances of snow for these coming days rise and fall, and finally fall again.  As new information enters the system, it should probably rise (and keep rising), or reach a peak and then fall and keep falling at some point in the advanced forecast.  This seems to occur about 5 or 6 days out.  We would like a few more days to be able to confidently look into next week.

This week's coming storm should produce heavy rain and gale force winds from Tuesday into Wednesday.  It may even get cold enough at the surface to freeze a few locations, but chances are small (other than on the Hermon where snow should fall again).

Yesterday's forecast showed that next week would most likely warm up a bit. There was even a larger chance that it would warm up a lot compared to more colder, winter-like temperatures.

Today's forecast is quite different, with about a 40% chance of our first snow of the season coming early next week.

However, there is a fine line here between just plain cold with some wet snow and really cold with an accumulating snow.  And, of course, for those who don't like winter weather -- there is a 40% chance it will be just wet, and even a 20% chance it won't rain at all (the warm and dry scenario).

I plan to provide an update later today or tomorrow.  Hopefully, there will be enough information in the model to indicate which scenario is more likely.

Barry Lynn

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