Thursday, December 29, 2016

Weather It Is (Storm Update)

Good Morning:

For the last few days, the forecasts from the global ensemble have minimized the possibility of a snowstorm for us this Shabbat and early next week.

True, they continue to show a period of precipitation from Shabbat into Tuesday.  However, none of the forecasts show enough cold at the lower levels to provide the background conditions for a good snow. Instead, the real cold is suppose to move north to south over Greece. Moreover, as the storm system moves east it is suppose to weaken, providing us with only a glancing blow.

About 30% of the ensemble members hold back the arrival of the upper level support for this storm system until about Tuesday morning. These actually forecast a colder outcome at upper levels.  If they verify, there could be a period of wet snow about Tuesday morning.

Nevertheless, the weather pattern is more wintry than not, and the period of Shabbat through Tuesday will be chilly with temperatures struggling to rise through the single digits (much above zero) throughout the period. In fact, it won't warm up until the middle of next week.

On another note: I watched Secretary Kerry's speech last night.  It was an impassioned speech, and heartfelt.  He correctly noted that the Israeli building of towns in areas that might become land as part of a future Palestinian state is not consistent with the "idea" of an independent Palestinian state. He also made some good points about the potential benefits of a thriving Palestinian democracy for Palestinians themselves. He also noted the need for Israel to provide more land for the growth of Palestinian towns.

However, he skirted the most obvious reasons why a peace agreement has failed to materialize: the very people who we are suppose to negotiate with are the very same who support terrorism (e.g, in the media, religious institutions, and schools), and find the idea of a Jewish state anathema. So, when he talks about making known the United States disapproval of such activities, he is speaking to the very same people who find all of these activities perfectly acceptable, encourage them, and whose ultimate goal is not the continued existence of Israel, but its demise.

In other words, there is no one to speak to on the other side, and there is a fundamental and existential difference between building homes (they can be removed) and a world view that precludes the existence or acceptance of the State of Israel (in any form).

No less important: the idea that the international community together with the Palestinians will guarantee or insure our security against threats is laughable (just look across any of our borders).

Moreover, the idea that peace between us and the Palestinians will lead mitigate the threat from Iran, Hizbollah, Syria, ISIS, and Hamas is false.

Finally, it is Israeli overall control of the area that enables Palestinians to access modern roads, health care, and even the modern economy. One might also note that the Palestinian State (that exists in some form even now) is in no way a democracy, and would -- if left on its own -- become an Iranian protectorate.

Barry Lynn

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