Friday, December 23, 2016

Weather It Is (Yes or No)

Good Afternoon:

Today a streak of rain should fall from southwest to northeast across southern Israel.  The rain is associated with middle and upper level moisture. The rain amounts at any hour should not be significant, but the total amounts may lead to some stream runoff.  Like the rain the other day, it may leave a bit of dust on the windshield.

Otherwise, late Saturday should see the arrival of a more significant storm forming over Cyprus (the "Cyprus Low").  Rain with this storm should be heaviest in the center and central mountains, and possibly last into Monday, with another round on Tuesday.

These weather events, although significant in their own right, pale in the shadow of the next. All eyes remain glued to the end of the month calendar period where a significantly cold and wet feature remains present in the deterministic models and ensemble means.  Such is the potential strength of the end of the year storm that we can clearly see its imprint on the upper level winds (as represented by the absolute vorticity) within a sharp and mean looking upper level trough.

We're about a week away, and we can be hopeful that the end of this week will shed more light on what will happen at the end of next.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn

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