Monday, December 19, 2016

Weather It Is (Unsettled and Cold)

Good Afternoon:

The latest forecasts show a burst of precipitation arriving in the late afternoon/evening to central coastal areas, and the mountains of Jerusalem and Gush Etzion.  Temperatures at 850 mb should be below 0 during tonight, so rain could end as a period of wet snow or rain/snow mixture.  Due to uncertainty in the forecast temperatures, it would be a mistake to speak about any snow accumulation with any confidence -- other than to say it is unlikely.

Looking further ahead: the global ensemble forecast continues to oscillate between various forecast outcomes. The previous forecast had a near 100% chance of rain for Shabbat, early next week.  Now, however, rain may arrive as early as Thursday.

The chance of snow on Thursday is just 10%, while it is a bit higher for the end of the week.

I think I will mention to NCEP that the global ensemble (GEFS) seems to be having a hard time producing consistent forecasts this year.

Barry Lynn

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