Saturday, December 31, 2016

Weather It Is (Winter Sticks Around)

Good Evening:

There is much "action" on the horizon.  Most encouraging is the waviness of the upper level (500 mb) pattern, where two waves will pass by on Monday and Tuesday night. The second will be colder than the first, and it might lead to some snow showers Tuesday night.

Looking at the lower atmospheric levels, there is some humidity, but temperatures should stay above freezing, so any snow showers should just melt.

The cold temperatures should moderate on Wednesday into the end of the week, but we see indications that early next week might turn quite cold, bringing back a chance of snow.  This storm (the third in our series) shows possible phasing between the lower and upper levels, which would bring lots of precipitation, wind, and snow.

We seem to be seeing a lot "opportunities" (~30% chances) for snow this year on the forecast maps.  If the global model has predictability beyond five days, then one of these weeks it will snow.

It was noted by a fellow blogger at "Jerusalem Snow" that the Climate Forecast Systems Model shows a cold January in store for us.  This is a change from what it showed in its three month outlook prior.

Barry Lynn

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