Wednesday, December 7, 2016

Weather It Is (When I Was A Kid)

Good Morning:

When I was a kid I used to like to talk about the weather.  So, one might wonder why I haven't been speaking about the weather for the last week.  I really wanted to say something, but as Joe Friday of "Dragnet" might have said: "give us the facts, Ma'am," which is not the same as "just the facts, Ma'am."  The first implies uncertainty, while the second implies certainty (and we're not).

Also, my mother used to complain when I provided more than just a cursory appraisal of the next storm, as she too wanted just the facts.  After all, I had given her some rather useful hats and other sundries to keep her warm, and I am sure that she wouldn't have wanted to arrive at school with the wrong ones, and then have to explain that her child really didn't have the facts, or at least the right ones.

So, that is where we are:  I want to say it, and I want to write it, but the forecast models we have are not capable enough to predict the next two weeks. If they were, then the possibility of our next snow storm would not come and go even on the 10 day forecast. I mean, if there was a 20% chance of a mid-December snow storm a few days ago, and then no chance, and now its back, this indicates that the global forecast models just don't have enough information (or physics capability) to forecast this far in advance.

So, the facts are the GEFS 12 UTC forecast model is indicating that mid-December just might bring a very early snowfall to even the Jerusalem area.

The probabilities are about 25%, which theoretically means that three-quarters of the time we write this blog it won't snow then.  On the other hand,  since the forecast models are somewhat data sparse in the areas where the real cold originates from, the possibility of snow may really be higher.

We will see in the next few days whether we should get excited enough to hope for the details to show themselves in our higher resolution forecasts.  If they do, I plan to produce some longer higher range higher resolution forecasts than currently on the site, to give an advanced look at just what may be.

Send your thoughts and/or comments or numerical weather forecast tidbits as you see fit.

Barry Lynn

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