Thursday, February 9, 2017

Weather It Is (GFS vs ECMWF)

Good Afternoon:

It's a fight between models.  The early morning update from each model differed in one important way: while both the GFS and ECMWF bring a period of rain and cold, only the ECMWF (ensemble) supports the continued development of the upper level trough mid week to bring a possibility of our first real snow in two years.

Perhaps as a hint of things to come, the latest GFS ensemble (GEFS) from 0600 UTC suggests that indeed the upper level trough will strengthen mid week.

Personally, I'd rather be in NY where they are expecting about a foot of snow from a storm this morning and afternoon (NY time).  I would really like to be able to transport from one snowstorm to the next, and then back to my warm bed by evening (Israel time), or a little later if needed.

In the meantime, expect temperatures to rise a bit until Friday evening, when they will plunge downward all the way until Wednesday.  Precipitation on Shabbat will be continue until sometime Tuesday although the precipitation will not fall steadily throughout the period.  Temperatures may be close to freezing on Tuesday (and Wednesday), but snow will fall only if the secondary development occurs in the upper level trough.

On a postive note -- if you like snow -- the Canadian forecast model predicts snow mid-week. However, Canadians like snow, so we should expect this.

Barry Lynn

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