Weather It Is (T-Storms)

Good Afternoon:

Tonight will see the arrival of a cool front, and temperatures will drop all the way into Friday.

Moisture will flow in behind the front, and an upper level storm (as indicated by a vorticity maximum at 500 mb) will create divergence aloft and the chance of thunderstorms.

Our highest resolution model suggests that the greatest chance for thunderstorms will be over the northern part of the country, but the upper level storm is positioned such that storms could occur in areas besides the north.

Besides the storms, light rain is possible, and the approach of another upper level storm on Thursday will bring another chance of showers.

Speaking of spring showers, I have been receiving a number of complaints about the light rain that seemed to occur in only certain locations, and only for certain people.  I can assure you that there was no prior planning involved, but that the light rain is simply a result of moisture at upper levels.  Had moisture been distributed in the lower atmosphere as well, the rain would have been more generously spread around.

While it will warm up nicely for several days next week, the week's end may see a return to cooler (but normal) temperatures and rainier weather (again).  This is shown in the GEFS forecasts and the ECMWF medium range forecasts for next week and the following.

Barry Lynn