Weather It Is (Winter Weather Warning/Winter Storm Watch)

Good Evening:

We've had several Erev Shabbat where the global forecast ensembles have hinted at an upcoming  mid-week snow. We've opened our computers Motzei Shabbat and (at least for some) been disappointed.  The system either moves too far west or remains to our north.

But sometimes -- and just sometimes (we live in the Mid-East) -- things are different and this Motzei Shabbat is the exception.

Our high resolution forecast model shows a fairly steady rain from Sunday into Tuesday, while the GEFS shows periods of precipitation continuing into Friday.

Moreover, the GEFS suggests that 850 mb temperatures will fall a couple of degrees below zero late Tuesday night, while 700 mb temperatures potentially fall below -12 C.  Wintry temperatures should be with us into Shabbat.

Five hundred millibar upper level support appears that it may arrive as early as Wednesday, but is more likely on Friday into Shabbat.  By this I mean that temperatures could fall well below -25 C, which will set up conditions more favorable for a heavier snowfall late in the week.

Because temperatures at 500 mb should be -25 C or below during the initial rain event, expect instability to increase and thunderstorms (with graupel and/or hail).

We'll take each forecast as it comes, and update you accordingly.

Barry Lynn