Tuesday, February 14, 2017

Weather It Is (Winter Weather Warning/Winter Storm Watch (5))

Good Afternoon:

There was a bit of excitement in the air this morning.

The reason?  The global forecast models are suggesting that it will be wetter and colder on Wednesday and Thursday than previously forecast.

The problem, it may not be cold enough to accumulate snow.

The cold air will arrive tonight in the lower and middle atmosphere (850/700 mb levels).  Our highest resolution model indicates that this will produce a very light snowfall in the area of Gush Etzion (and northern mountains), with some wet snow/rain possible in Jerusalem.

By mid-morning and afternoon, temperatures aloft will warm a bit, so any precipitation would just fall as rain.

Thursday, a very cold upper trough (500 mb) is expected to arrive in the morning and produce a period of much heavier precipitation than we've seen up to now into the evening hours.

The high resolution model indicates that snow is more likely during this period, but no accumulation is expected in Jerusalem, but perhaps on cars, while a light accumulation is expected in Gush Etzion (heavier amounts in the Golan).

The reason: surface temperatures are currently forecast to be too warm for a major accumulation.

Since one degree either way could make a big difference, we'll have to report back tomorrow with the latest high resolution forecast data.

Barry Lynn

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