Sunday, February 12, 2017

Weather It is (Winter Weather Warning/Winter Storm Watch (3))

Good Evening:

This has been a winter more notable for what it wasn't than for what it was.

It seemed that a number of potential winter storms passed us by, leaving winter storm enthusiasts frustrated.

I am sure that most folks have noticed the inclement weather, which has been punctuated by periods of rain or showers, as well as thunderstorms.

The chilly weather and rain will continue through Tuesday, with the heaviest rain from Netanya and then eastward to Jerusalem, and then south to Beer-Sheva.

We'll then be affected by two storms, from afternoon Wednesday until sometime Friday night.

Mixed rain and snow is likely Wednesday night becoming wet snow on Thursday in the area of the central mountains, transitioning to a drier snow Thursday night and continuing into Friday evening.

Winds should be breezy, reducing visibility in snow, but at the moment are forecast to be below blizzard levels.

The temperatures at 500 mb are forecast to be quite cold (possibly below -30 C).  However, the height of the 500 pressure level is higher than in past storms.  This suggests a moist middle to upper layer arriving with the cold air.  Indeed, the global ensemble shows a 2 to 3 times increase in precipitation amounts from Wednesday afternoon until Friday evening.

Our high resolution model will probably show even more precipitation than the global ensemble than it typically does because of this moist layer (during the time of heaviest snow), as air flows over the central mountains and precipitates out.

There is still uncertainty in the extent of the cold, so stay tuned.

Barry Lynn

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