Weather It Is (Winter Storm Warning)

There is a Winter Storm Warning for Friday night and Shabbat for central Israel, the Galilee mountains, and the Golan.  A winter weather advisory is in effect for Saturday night and Sunday morning.  A winter weather warning for other locations where heavy rain may lead to flooding in low-lying areas and flash floods in streams.

That said, thank you to all who wrote to voice their support for mixing a bit of political-weather humor into the posts.  And, thank you for those that wrote otherwise.

I'd really like to say that it will snow, and snow a lot.  My best guess at this moment is for several centimeters of snow late Friday night and Shabbat (with much more on the Hermon).  The problem is that I have a feeling that I'll toss and turn Friday evening (instead of my usual toss and turn here or there), while I wait for the snow to begin. Then, I'll fall into a fitful sleep, only to dream about a deep white covering on the windows, lawn and fields -- only to wake up to: "why hasn't the snow started yet?"

Oh, the angst to be a weather forecaster (man).

Here's what the best science tells us.  It is going to be very cold at 850 mb (about 500 m above the surface of Gush Etzion) -- 1 or 2 C below freezing,  and at 700 mb. This will set the stage for temperatures at the surface to fall to freezing and allow for snow/sleet to accumulate on cars, grass, and even the roads.   However, at 500 mb it will be borderline for good snow development.  Still, the peak of the storm late Friday and Saturday will likely (hopefully) bring in enough cold air to make everything white.  An important factor is that it is suppose to remain cold into Sunday afternoon, so the roads should turn slick with ice and driving is not at all recommended, and could be quite dangerous (in locations where it snows).  My guess is that school will be cancelled Sunday morning.

Actually, our weather model is predicting an accumulation in areas such as ours, and I'll be able to be more certain as we get closer to the event and enter the time horizon late tomorrow morning of our highest resolution model (with 1.3 km grid spacing).

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn